Last year Jeff and I set out to provide you contrasting views on every NFL game. Jeff is the gut-feel NFL junkie just picking winners and I’m the stat junkie aspiring gambler picking games against the spread.
Our inaugural season was pretty successful. While my total picks finished just under .500 at 49% things went a quite a bit better for my Top 5 Games (in bold below) where I came in at a much more respectable 56% (27-21-2). The line are the same ones used for the 2012 Las Vegas Hilton Supercontest, which is the World Series of Poker for NFL Handicappers. Last years winner went a staggering 58-22-5 (68%) so obviously there’s room for improvement.
On to the Week 1 picks:
| Expert | Game Analysis and Prediction |
|---|---|
| Indianapolis Colts +9.5 @ Chicago Bears - Sunday September 9th 1:00 PM (ET) | |
| Jeff | I do believe that Andrew Luck will be a good to great NFL quarterback, but that time is not now and the Bears defense is still in the upper echelon of defenses in the league so the Bears will give the young Colts QB a rude welcome to the league. Also Jay Cutler will get to play with the new offensive toys that the Bears got him this off-season. Bears 35 – Colts 17 |
| Sean | The Colts switch to the 3-4 defense and weaknesses in the secondary really have me concerned for the defenses early season performance. But it’s not like the Bears new offense and weapons are going to come out firing on all cylinders. This should be a comfortable win for the Bears, but double-digits seems like a little much. (COLTS +9.5) |
| Philadelphia Eagles -8.5 @ Cleveland Browns - Sunday September 9th 1:00 PM (ET) | |
| Jeff | The Browns are trotting out a 28 year old rookie QB and do not have much support around him. The Eagles have an explosive offense and a risk reward defense that should have them well out in front in this game and not look back. Eagles 42 – Browns 14 |
| Sean | The only thing the Browns have to hang their hat on is a potentially middle of the road defense. But the possibility of being without star cornerback Joe Haden this week puts even that in jepordy. Vick is healthy for this one and the Eagles have an explosive offense combined with a defense that improved dramatically over the second half of last year. It really shouldn’t be close. (EAGLES -8.5) |
| Buffalo Bills +2.5 @ New York Jets - Sunday September 9th 1:00 PM (ET) | |
| Jeff | The Jets still have a strong OLine and possibly the best defensive player in the NFL however their skill position players on offense leave something to be desired the Tim Tebow effect could be a crushing blow to an already mentally weak locker room. The Bills will look to build on their strong start to last season by starting strong again this year. Bills 28 – Jets 14 |
| Sean | More than the line I’d really like to be the UNDER in this game. For all the focus on the Jets offensive ineptitude their defense can still strangle the vertically challenged Bills offense. But how do they score? The Bills at least have offensive playmakers in Stevie Johnson, Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller. I like one of them to come up with a big scoring play at some point. That, plus getting points put me over the top. (BILLS +2.5) |
| Washington Redskins +7 @ New Orleans Saints - Sunday September 9th 1:00 PM (ET) | |
| Jeff | My Saints just went through a very tumultuous off season that saw their head coach suspended for the season, but being backed into a corner for a team that has veteran leadership throughout the team could be a good thing. The Saints should come out hungry and looking to prove somethings this year and while the Redskins have a young exciting QB leading them into their first game this year he is just that a young QB that should make some highlights but also his share of mistakes this year. Saints 45 – Redskins 35 |
| Sean | What a way for Robert Griffin III to start his NFL career. In some ways the Superdome is perfect for him, with his speed playing its best on the turf. However, in all other ways it couldn’t be a whole lot worse. The Saints are a team that has always played well on emotion and kicking off the season following Bounty Gate and the latest hurricane scare the homefield should be rocking. Oh and Drew Brees is still their QB, the loss of Sean Payton won’t be felt here. (SAINTS -7) |
| New England Patriots -5.5 @ Tennessee Titans - Sunday September 9th 1:00 PM (ET) | |
| Jeff | While the New England defense still remains questionable the firepower they have on offense with Tom Brady at the helm is unquestionable and that will overwhelm a young Titans team. Patriots 45 – Titans 35 |
| Sean | The Titans have the type of disruptive line that can give the Patriots offense problem, you just don’t know about it. If the Pats have an achilles heel this season their offensive line is certainly it. But their defense is improved and Jake Locker’s accuracy is a huge concern. Barring a throwback CJ2K performance I have trouble imagining Tom Brady and Co. don’t kick off the season with a statement win. (PATRIOTS -5.5) |
| Jacksonville Jaguars +3.5 @ Minnesota Vikings - Sunday September 9th 1:00 PM (ET) | |
| Jeff | With MJD still working his way back into playing shape and Gabbert still not an NFL QB the Jags are going to go through a long season. Minnesota also has a young QB but one who performed at a much higher level in his first season, this should not be a problem for the Vikings. Vikings 28 – Jaguars 13 |
| Sean | This game is probably more about the star running backs who will barely play than anything that will happen on the field, but there are still bets to be made. The Jaguars defense made a huge leap forward last year, but that normally indicates a step back the following year. The Vikings meanwhile actually have a weapon in Percy Harvin and the more promising second-year QB (for what that’s worth) in Christian Ponder. (VIKINGS -3.5) |
| Miami Dolphins +13 @ Houston Texans - Sunday September 9th 1:00 PM (ET) | |
| Jeff | Miami not good. Texans 38 – Dolphins 10 |
| Sean | Why? Why Miami? Why? The Dolphins actually weren’t that bad last year. They were more unlucky than anything else. However, instead of proper self-scouting and staying the course they tore the whole thing down and brought in an entirely new coaching staff. The defense still remains – and should be good – but the offense is a complete mystery and devoid of difference-makers. The Texans are coming of their best season and completely healthy. Still… Two touchdowns? I’m not feeling it. (DOLPHINS +13) |
| St. Louis Rams +7 @ Detroit Lions - Sunday September 9th 1:00 PM (ET) | |
| Jeff | The Rams ran into some bad luck last year with injuries but with Jeff Fisher now at leading the team they are in good position to battle for the NFC West. However Detroit will come out guns blazing trying to outdo their one and done playoff appearance from last season and when in doubt never bet against Megatron. Lions 35 – Rams 31 |
| Sean | With a secondary destroyed by injuries the Rams never really stood a chance last year. With a little more luck in the health department they hopefully won’t be a doormat this season. Problem is they still can’t protect Sam Bradford and the one thing the Lions can do on defense is rush the passer. Matthew Stafford’s numbers from last year are a bit deceiving – he lead the league in pass attempts – but as long as he’s got Calvin Johnson to chuck it up to the Lions will be explosive. (LIONS -7) |
| Atlanta Falcons -2.5 @ Kansas City Chiefs - Sunday September 9th 1:00 PM (ET) | |
| Jeff | Kansas City seems to be darling of the AFC West of all the pundits and with the addition of Peyton Hillis and the return of Jamaal Charles puts them in good place. However many people are also high on the Falcons and their vaunted wide receiver core. This should be hard fought battle but the edge goes to the Chiefs. Chiefs 31 – Falcons 28 |
| Sean | Home dog you say? Bears were in the exact same position against the Falcons last year and ended up dominating them. Could we see a repeat performance? I’m firmly on the Chiefs bandwagon despite Matt Cassel, but the Falcons are the true hype machine as Julio Jones is poised to become a combination of Jerry Rice and Randy Moss, if you read enough fantasy columns at least. In the end the home dog is too intriguing to pass up. (CHIEFS +2.5) |
| San Francisco 49ers +5 @ Green Bay Packers - Sunday September 9th 4:25 PM (ET) | |
| Jeff | This should be a good test for a great Green Bay offense vs. a great San Francisco defense. This will be a great game and most likely game of the week. In the end Aaron Rodgers will be too much for even the SF defense. Packers 28 – 49ers 24 |
| Sean | The Packers won’t go 15-1 again but they might actually be a better team this year. There’s no reason to expect their offense to take a step back and the defense brought in some reinforcements for Clay Matthews. Meanwhile, the 49ers brought in some WRs to help get Alex Smith to the next level, the problem is he’s still Alex Smith. I expect him to succumb to some serious pressure in this game while Aaron Rodgers deftly steps around Aldon Smith and that’ll make the difference. (PACKERS -5) |
| Carolina Panthers -2.5 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Sunday September 9th 4:25 PM (ET) | |
| Jeff | Cam Newton year 2 begins and it is against one of the worst run defenses from last year that equation leads to a Panthers victory. Panthers 28 – Buccaneers 14 |
| Sean | The Buccaneers are bound to bounce back, mostly because last season couldn’t get much worse. Offensively they should improve with the arrival of Vincent Jackson, Carl Nicks, and Doug Martin. Unfortunately, the defense seemed to be mostly ignored and Cam Newton and Co. should feast. The Panther were let down by an injury decimated defense that is mostly healthy now. It might be enough to keep them out of the playoffs, but not from a key road victory. (PANTHERS -2.5) |
| Seattle Seahawks -2.5 @ Arizona Cardinals - Sunday September 9th 4:25 PM (ET) | |
| Jeff | It will be fun watching Russel Wilson develop as an NFL this year, it will not be fun watching whatever is going on in Arizona this year unless they decide that the new offense is to just throw the ball Larry Fitzgerald every single play. Seahawks 35 – Cardinals 10 |
| Sean | Home dog in an intra-division match-up AND a rookie QB making his first start on the road? Oh! And the Seahawks best offensive player – Marshawn Lynch – may be out with back spasms. Wow, that’s an awful lot going against them. My instinct is to say “Yeah, but the other guys are starting John Skelton” and well, that’s exactly what I’m going to say. How the Cardinals won 8 games last year is really beyond anyone’s comprehension. (SEAHAWKS -2.5) |
| Pittsburgh Steelers +1.5 @ Denver Broncos - Sunday September 9th 8:25 PM (ET) | |
| Jeff | We’ll see if Peyton Manning’s surgically repaired neck can hold up against a pretty strong defense. I say yes, that’s all I got. Broncos 28 – Steelers 21 |
| Sean | Peyton Manning starts his Broncos career in prime-time, a place where he has historically shined. The Steelers return to the scene of the crime, where poor offensive line play and Tim Tebow robbed them of a deep playoff run. A lot will be made again of the fact that Ryan Clark won’t be able to play because of the altitude, but I’m really not sure it matters. Too many people have done the simple math: 8-8 team making the upgrade from Tebow to Manning = Great Team. Problem is the Broncos were more of a 6 win team last year and I don’t expect the transition to Peyton to be seamless. (STEELERS +1.5) |
| Cincinnati Bengals +6.5 @ Baltimore Ravens - Monday September 10th 7:00 PM (ET) | |
| Jeff | This will be a smash mouth AFC North battle, and the edge goes to the home team, and Ray Rice! Ravens 31 – Bengals 28 |
| Sean | How will the Ravens adjust without the presence of Terrell Suggs. His skills as both a pass rusher and stout run defender were a key cog in Baltimore’s dominant defense. Will his absence give Any Dalton a chance to exorcise some demons from last year? For what it’s worth the Ravens covered this spread in both meetings last year, but AJ Green did miss one of those games. I think it matters. (RAVENS -6.5) |
| San Diego Chargers PK @ Oakland Raiders - Monday September 10th 10:15 PM (ET) | |
| Jeff | Every year it seems like people pick the Chargers to do well and go to the superbowl and then they stumble out of the gates and need an incredible late season surge just to need help to get into the playoffs, this year will be no different and McFadden will run all over the Chargers in this opener. Raiders 35 – Chargers 28 |
| Sean | It’s a new era for the Raiders, unfortunately the old era’s spending left them in a tough position this offseason and no team added less to their roster since the end of last year. The Chargers meanwhile are perennial slow starters and lost their best wide receiver in free agency. Maybe I’m just getting sucked in again, but if this is going to come down to a Philip Rivers/Carson Palmer battle I want to be on the side with Rivers. (CHARGERS PK) |