Here at the Sports Trough we like to rank things, and from Aaron Rodgers destroying the league to Tim Tebow’s 2 for 8s, QB play has been as popular a discussion point as ever. Building on our mid-season ranking last year, I have again posed the following question to my fellow contributors:“Imagine the NFL is going to have a league-wide 32 team tournament starting next week, only first they are redrafting the entire league. Picking only from the current starters (i.e. not Tim Tebow) how would you set your draft board?”
We’ll come back some time around mid-season and revisit these, but for right now let’s get straight to it:
| Avg Rank | QB | Contributor | Rank | Explanation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aaron Rodgers | Sean | 1 | Sean Says: Rodgers is the best QB in football and there really isn’t any debate about it. Watching him run the Packers offense last year was like watching a painter put the finishing touches on his masterpiece… Unless of course your team was on the other side of it. The stats speak for themselves really. Since he took over as a starter he’s completed 65.5% of his passes for 131 TDs against just 37 INTs and averaging 8.3 yards per attempt. Oh, and he’s mobile enough to hurt you with his legs too. |
| Dave | 1 | |||
| Jeff | 1 | |||
| Kyle | 1 | |||
| Neal | 1 | |||
| Justin | 1 | |||
| Average | 1 | |||
| 2 | Drew Brees | Sean | 3 | Dave Says: Brees led an attack last season that net 5476 yards, of which 2363 of them were after the reception. Given a 71.2 completion percentage, it is obvious that Brees puts the ball where it needs to be for his receivers, and does so in a way that allows them to continue moving after they have control of the ball. Like last season, the only potential knock on the game of Drew Brees is the pedestrian 11.7 yards per completion, which was not even in the top-10 of quarterbacks in 2011. |
| Dave | 2 | |||
| Jeff | 2 | |||
| Kyle | 2 | |||
| Neal | 2 | |||
| Justin | 3 | |||
| Average | 2.33 | |||
| 3 | Tom Brady | Sean | 2 | Justin Says: I’m not sure why ranking Tom Brady as the 2nd best QB in the league would be alarming to anyone. Realistically, he and Brees are 2a and 2b, but I give Brady the nod over Brees because of the Patriots shaky running game. Defenses know that New England will be relying heavily on the pass, yet Brady is able to consistently pick them apart. I have a feeling this will be less of surprise pick by the end of the season. |
| Dave | 3 | |||
| Jeff | 3 | |||
| Kyle | 3 | |||
| Neal | 3 | |||
| Justin | 2 | |||
| Average | 2.67 | |||
| 4 | Eli Manning | Sean | 5 | Neal Says: Manning at #7 wasn’t meant to be a knock on his skills or abilities; in fact, I’m quite surprised my ranking ended up being the lowest. I have a lot of faith in Eli Manning – it’s kind of hard not to at this point – and I think that #7 is solid. But this is a ranking around players you’d take in a fresh draft, and the quarterbacks I’ve ranked above Eli are simply better in areas that I think are important – Stafford in strength and accuracy, Cutler in raw talent, and Newton in youth and mobility. |
| Dave | 4 | |||
| Jeff | 4 | |||
| Kyle | 5 | |||
| Neal | 7 | |||
| Justin | 4 | |||
| Average | 4.83 | |||
| 5 | Matthew Stafford | Sean | 9 | Sean Says: Let’s see him do it again. Prior to last season he’d only thrown 473 passes and not all that successfully. So while last year’s raw numbers (5,038 yards and 41 TDs) look really impressive, it’s important to note it took him a league leading 663 pass attempts to do so. Plus it sure helps to just be able to chuck the ball up to Calvin Johnson. I’m not saying that Stafford isn’t on the cusp of being elite, but let’s see him do it for one more season before we anoint him as such. |
| Dave | 5 | |||
| Jeff | 6 | |||
| Kyle | 4 | |||
| Neal | 4 | |||
| Justin | 7 | |||
| Average | 5.83 | |||
| 6 | Michael Vick | Sean | 7 | Jeff Says: The upside of Vick is incredibly high and he could possibly be the best dual threat quarterback in the league when healthy. Those last two words are the key to why I only have him ranked in the middle of the pack when his ceiling is so high. The injury risk involved with a player such as Vick makes me hesitant on letting him lead my team. The most important quality in a QB for me is consistency and reliability which I do not get from Vick. |
| Dave | 10 | |||
| Jeff | 13 | |||
| Kyle | 8 | |||
| Neal | 8 | |||
| Justin | 9 | |||
| Average | 9.17 | |||
| 7 | Jay Cutler | Sean | 12 | Dave Says: Even when Cutler is at his best, he is still middle of the pack for players who can help carry a team. A career 61.1 completion percentage hides a reduced 59.9 percentage over the last three years when dealing with inferior receiving options. Concerns about toughness are overrated, but concerns about whether his gunslinger mentality will end a drive are still valid. Cutler has previously led the league in interception totals and has consistently thrown nearly 4 interceptions for every 100 passes throughout his career. |
| Dave | 14 | |||
| Jeff | 8 | |||
| Kyle | 6 | |||
| Neal | 5 | |||
| Justin | 13 | |||
| Average | 9.67 | |||
| 8 | Peyton Manning | Sean | 10 | Justin Says: Okay, fine. I ranked Manning this high primarily based on reputation. After four neck surgeries, the main concern is keeping him healthy for a full season. He’s obviously not the Peyton Manning of 2006, but he has the mental toughness and knowledge of the game to still produce at a high level. |
| Dave | 7 | |||
| Jeff | 9 | |||
| Kyle | 14 | |||
| Neal | 13 | |||
| Justin | 6 | |||
| Average | 9.83 | |||
| 9 | Ben Roethlisberger | Sean | 4 | Jeff Says: Besides my own personal biases due to allegations of the criminal sort there are a few factors leading to the low ranking I have for the Steeler’s QB. The number of hits he has taken in the past make him have more wear and tear on his body than most QBs his age and that offensive line this year is only going to get him hit more. The team that surrounds him is another reason that I do not like Big Ben this season as the running game is a huge question mark and with Wallace missing camp the WR core is a small concern as well. Overall I’m just concerned that he will not be able to take the punishment that he has in the past and continue to produce the way he has. I believe Ben is on the backside of his career. |
| Dave | 6 | |||
| Jeff | 17 | |||
| Kyle | 13 | |||
| Neal | 15 | |||
| Justin | 5 | |||
| Sean C | 9 | |||
| 10 | Cam Newton | Sean | 13 | Neal Says: This is probably too high and reactionary after a very good rookie season, but it’s very hard to overlook how effective he was even without the best receiving targets or offensive line protecting him. I tend to feel that the NFL is moving toward a more mobile quarterback era, despite how fast defenses are, and Newton can only improve. I’m very high on Newton given that his running game is already excellent and he can still improve on his throwing, both strength and accuracy. It is hard to ignore that potential. |
| Dave | 11 | |||
| Jeff | 10 | |||
| Kyle | 7 | |||
| Neal | 6 | |||
| Justin | 15 | |||
| Average | 10.33 | |||
| 11 | Philip Rivers | Sean | 6 | Kyle Says: Personally, I’m low on Philip Rivers. His inconsistency is terrifying in almost any situation. Philip Rivers can “go all PHILIP RIVERS” (as LL likes to remind us) and throw for 4 TDs in the 4th quarter of a game, or he can put up 2 TDs, 2 INTs, and 200 yards for a less than stellar outing. However low I go on Rivers though, his numbers don’t lie. 4,624 yards and 27 TDs to 20 INTs. His rating is a low 62.7 for last season, and with VJ gone from the Chargers, I’m interested to see how he does with no targets. There is a good chance Rivers is lower on my list than RG3 by this time next season. |
| Dave | 8 | |||
| Jeff | 5 | |||
| Kyle | 20 | |||
| Neal | 20 | |||
| Justin | 11 | |||
| Average | 11.67 | |||
| 12 | Joe Flacco | Sean | 16 | Kyle Says: Joe Flacco has proven year after year that he can be a resourceful quarterback. While he may not have the accuracy of Rodgers, or the arm of Brees, Flacco has learned to make due with what he has, and formulate himself into any gameplan. A versatile quarterback can be just as useful as a guy with a cannon. Flacco has utilized his tools as best he could in Baltimore, throwing for 3,610 yards, 20 TDs and 12 interceptions on a team with a lacking receiving corps. Most of his passes were to his outstanding halfback, Ray Rice. Even with a less than average receiver corps, Flacco has put up solid numbers, making him a viable option in almost any situation. |
| Dave | 15 | |||
| Jeff | 11 | |||
| Kyle | 10 | |||
| Neal | 9 | |||
| Justin | 12 | |||
| Average | 12.17 | |||
| 13 | Matt Ryan | Sean | 11 | Neal Says: Yow! Nothing Matty Ice has really ever done has impressed me. I realize that 22 is almost certainly too low, but I don’t like his decision-making, field vision, and I think he’s always going to go down from there. Atlanta has had the potential to do so much more in the four years since he took the helm, and it always seems to be Matt Ryan’s poise that keeps them from pulling it off. I wouldn’t go after him with an early draft pick at this point. |
| Dave | 12 | |||
| Jeff | 12 | |||
| Kyle | 9 | |||
| Neal | 22 | |||
| Justin | 8 | |||
| Average | 12.33 | |||
| 14 | Matt Schaub | Sean | 14 | Justin Says: In my opinion, Schaub is the most underrated 2nd tier quarterback in the league. He leads a high-octane offense that consistently ranks among the most productive in the league. He thew for over 4,000 yards in 2009 and 2010 (almost 5,000 in 2009) and was on pace to do so in 2011 before getting derailed by injury. Arian Foster and Andre Johnson are the names that get all the credit but Schaub is in the middle of it all. |
| Dave | 13 | |||
| Jeff | 14 | |||
| Kyle | 15 | |||
| Neal | 11 | |||
| Justin | 10 | |||
| Average | 12.83 | |||
| 15 | Tony Romo | Sean | 8 | Sean Says: Where did all this Romo hate come from? All he’s done since taking over as the starter is complete 64.5% of his passes and post 16-game averages of nearly 4,000 yards and 29 TDs. And it hasn’t been a question of sheer volume; he’s averaged 8 yards per attempt. Has the last season and post-season success been an issue? Yes. But some of that is out of his control. All I know is if I’m drafting a team for this season I’d be thrilled to have him under center. |
| Dave | 9 | |||
| Jeff | 15 | |||
| Kyle | 16 | |||
| Neal | 18 | |||
| Justin | 14 | |||
| Average | 13.33 | |||
| 16 | Andy Dalton | Sean | 20 | Jeff Says: Dalton has sneaky mobility outside of the pocket and can scramble when a play breaks down, but that quality is just icing on the cake. His poise and calm in the pocket as a rookie last season was incredible and while there have been stories of successful rookie seasons followed by dud careers but I believe that Dalton has a bright future ahead of him. |
| Dave | 20 | |||
| Jeff | 7 | |||
| Kyle | 12 | |||
| Neal | 14 | |||
| Justin | 20 | |||
| Average | 15.50 | |||
| 17 | Ryan Fitzpatrick | Sean | 17 | Sean Says: I feel like this hasn’t been talked about enough in a while, did you know Ryan Fitzpatrick went to Harvard? Over the last two seasons he’s proven himself to be a competent NFL QB and not too much more. The flash he showed in the first half of last year was erased in a sea of interceptions, and that’s far too often been his problem. If you believe the reported rib injury was the driving factor of his regression then maybe his upside is just into the top half of the rankings. |
| Dave | 16 | |||
| Jeff | 21 | |||
| Kyle | 18 | |||
| Neal | 17 | |||
| Justin | 21 | |||
| Average | 18.33 | |||
| 18 | Alex Smith | Sean | 18 | Dave Says: At this stage in Alex Smith’s career, the bust label can be replaced with the game manager label. While being asked to throw the ball only 445 times (for reference, over 16 games it is about 130 more times than Cutler in 10 games), Smith put up 3144 yards and an interception rate of 1.1. In those attempts, Smith saw yards per attempt of 7.1 and 354 yards after the catch. Overall, these are good yet pedestrian numbers put up by a quarterback who won’t lose you the game. One thing to note would be Smith’s performance in the Divisional Round of the playoffs where he matched Drew Brees TD-for-TD in the second half. Perhaps a second year with Jim Harbaugh will lead to continued growth. |
| Dave | 23 | |||
| Jeff | 16 | |||
| Kyle | 19 | |||
| Neal | 16 | |||
| Justin | 19 | |||
| Average | 18.50 | |||
| 19 | Robert Griffin III | Sean | 24 | Kyle Says: RG3 is ranked middle of the pack, only from a cautionary standpoint. We have yet to see him in an NFL regular season game. Even so, I personally have him ranked at 11th. His stats at Baylor speak volumes for his athleticism. In his senior year alone, RG3 threw for 37 TDs, and ran in 10. Amassing near 6,000 total yards of offense, RG3 has the skill and raw talent to become the next Michael Vick, but better. His speed forces defenses to change their gameplan, leaving his receivers with more room to work with. RG3 definitely has the ability to be the spark his team needs in any 4th quarter situation. Please note that I only have him ranked 11th for our current situation, re-drafting for a 32 team tournament. I do not think that RG3 can produce his numbers through the entire season, and even have a wager going with fellow analyst Jeff that Kirk Cousins will have 120 minutes of playing time and be crowned the starting QB in Washington by week 15. |
| Dave | 18 | |||
| Jeff | 23 | |||
| Kyle | 11 | |||
| Neal | 12 | |||
| Justin | 24 | |||
| Average | 18.67 | |||
| 20 | Andrew Luck | Sean | 23 | Neal Says: Potential, potential, potential. Probably too high, but it’s been awhile since there’s been a quarterback coming out of the draft with this much potential to be a complete franchise-changer. The veteran quarterbacks below him on this list represent guys who have a worrisome injury history or are simply getting too old to build a team around – Peyton could have very few years left, Roethlisberger’s shoulder is a huge worry, Tony Romo and Matt Schaub are mediocre at best…but looking at Luck, you might be getting somebody who will one day be at the top of this list. And as such, he is in the top 10 of my list. |
| Dave | 19 | |||
| Jeff | 22 | |||
| Kyle | 17 | |||
| Neal | 10 | |||
| Justin | 23 | |||
| Average | 19.00 | |||
| 21 | Josh Freeman | Sean | 15 | Sean Says: This ranking seems like a dramatic overreaction to his regression last season. QBs don’t always grow on linearly and Freeman’s 2011 reminds me a lot of Eli Manning’s 2010. That was a season where Eli was sabotaged by bad luck and an inflated INT total that masked the coming dominant season he had last year. While I think it’s too early to predict dominance for Freeman, he was unlucky last year and was asked to carry a team that was crumbling around him. A new season and some better luck should see his stock rise close to previous levels. |
| Dave | 17 | |||
| Jeff | 20 | |||
| Kyle | 24 | |||
| Neal | 24 | |||
| Justin | 16 | |||
| Average | 19.33 | |||
| 22 | Carson Palmer | Sean | 19 | Dave Says: Definitely not worth all of the picks that Oakland gave to the Bengals, but still an NFL worthy QB. Palmer was thrust into the starting role with 3 days practice and predictably had a terrible game (and a not-great follow-up), but as the season progressed Palmer was able to hit his stride. Palmer still has the ability to attack defenses vertically, which will be obvious with speedy receivers (like Denarius Moore and Darrius Heyward-Bay). With a 60.7 completion percentage and 7.0 yards per attempt, Palmer falls well into the middle of the QB pack. |
| Dave | 24 | |||
| Jeff | 24 | |||
| Kyle | 22 | |||
| Neal | 21 | |||
| Justin | 17 | |||
| Average | 21.17 | |||
| 23 | Sam Bradford | Sean | 22 | Neal Says: Bradford has shown me nothing in his career except that he’s not going to last very long. His body doesn’t seem like it’s handling the bruising its taking and I expect to see him go the route of David Carr. He was middling at best his rookie year – yes, very good rookie stats – but his sophomore regression was very worrisome, even before his high ankle injury. He might be good, but I just don’t trust him and don’t think he has the potential of most of the remaining young quarterbacks on this list. |
| Dave | 21 | |||
| Jeff | 18 | |||
| Kyle | 25 | |||
| Neal | 29 | |||
| Justin | 22 | |||
| Average | 22.83 | |||
| 24 | Matt Cassell | Sean | 21 | Justin Says: In my opinion, guys ranked in the late-teens/early 20s are your game managers. I call this the Trent Dilfer Zone. Coaches of these QBs typically take less chances with their offensive play-calling in order to protect their passers. As a result, these QBs tend to keep their starting jobs longer than they probably should. Other notable Dilfer Zone guys in NFL history: Chad Pennington, Brad Johnson, Chris Chandler, Stan Humphries. You get the idea. |
| Dave | 25 | |||
| Jeff | 26 | |||
| Kyle | 26 | |||
| Neal | 25 | |||
| Justin | 18 | |||
| Average | 23.50 | |||
| 25 | Russell Wilson | Sean | 25 | Neal Says: Again, the potential is here. It’s not as high as someone like Andrew Luck, but it’s not yet wasted like Sam Bradford’s. Here’s what we know about Russell Wilson: he was efficient and effective in college, with great field vision and very few mistakes. He put up tremendous stats in an offense that didn’t need him to be their best player. And coming out in the preseason, he handily won the job over Matt Flynn, who not only had more experience in an NFL setting, but an absurd contract that would normally justify starting him. I respected the hell out of him in college and I respect Pete Carroll’s eye for talent, so I have to take a decent flier on Wilson. |
| Dave | 22 | |||
| Jeff | 25 | |||
| Kyle | 21 | |||
| Neal | 19 | |||
| Justin | 29 | |||
| Average | 23.50 | |||
| 26 | Jake Locker | Sean | 26 | Jeff Says: The main concern with Locker is his lack of accuracy and completion percentage in college. Granted that is my main concern with him as well because all the other attributes point to him being a great NFL quarterback: arm strength, mobility in and out of the pocket, size, strength, durability and toughness. I think that he can be coached into becoming a more accurate passer and into a stellar NFL QB, but unless he gets that cleaned up his ceiling is being a bottom half QB. |
| Dave | 29 | |||
| Jeff | 19 | |||
| Kyle | 23 | |||
| Neal | 23 | |||
| Justin | 25 | |||
| Average | 24.17 | |||
| 27 | Christian Ponder | Sean | 27 | Kyle Says: Christian Ponder is ranked above Tannehill for one reason: Experience (as little as it is). Ponder threw as many touchdowns as he did interceptions last year (13) and ended the season with a 33.7 Total QB Rating. Only attempting 291 passes last season, it’s no wonder Ponder’s raw numbers are abysmal. He was largely overvalued in the 2011 draft, and didn’t have the stellar college career most first rounders have, especially a quarterback chosen as a top 15 pick. |
| Dave | 26 | |||
| Jeff | 27 | |||
| Kyle | 29 | |||
| Neal | 28 | |||
| Justin | 27 | |||
| Average | 27.33 | |||
| 28 | John Skelton | Sean | 28 | Dave Says: The only thing keeping the Arizona QB’s from my bottom spot was the abyss that is the N.Y. Jets QB corp. Skelton set a career high in completion percentage in 2011 with a 54.9 figure, while throwing to Larry Fitzgerald. Further to that point, his receivers put up a negative in yards after completion, which demonstrates that the 54.9% of completed passes were done in a way to stop the receivers in their tracks (or to force them to come back to the ball). A lot will be said about how the Cardinals won with Skelton behind center, much like a lot is said about Tebow running shirtless in the rain. |
| Dave | 31 | |||
| Jeff | 29 | |||
| Ky;e | 27 | |||
| Neal | 26 | |||
| Justin | 28 | |||
| Average | 28.17 | |||
| 29 | Ryan Tannehill | Sean | 32 | Kyle Says: The reason Tannehill is ranked so low by all is the sample size of 0. He’s a rookie quarterback, largely overshadowed by Andrew Luck and RG3 in the 2012 draft. Tannehill only threw for 3,744 yards at Texas A&M his senior year, completing 61.6% of his passes. A 29 to 15 touchdown to interception ratio isn’t that bad, but he simply hasn’t had the stunning college career most of today’s pro quarterbacks have had. A&M wasn’t even close to winning the Big 12 title. Tannehill has the most upside however, as no one really expects him to do anything great. |
| Dave | 28 | |||
| Jeff | 32 | |||
| Kyle | 28 | |||
| Neal | 27 | |||
| Justin | 31 | |||
| Average | 29.67 | |||
| 30 | Mark Sanchez | Sean | 29 | Justin Says: I thought I was pretty hard on Sanchez by dropping him out of the Diler Zone to the “Don’t Mess this Up…Please” Zone of the mid-20s. Evidently, my Trough Network colleagues won’t give him even that much credit. The reason I can’t rank him that low is because I have a hard time putting him too far below promising, yet unproven prospects like Robert Griffin III and Jake Locker. Sure Sanchez makes you cringe at times, but he has at least proven that he’s a starting QB in the NFL, right? Ok, I’ll shut up… |
| Dave | 32 | |||
| Jeff | 30 | |||
| Kyle | 31 | |||
| Neal | 30 | |||
| Justin | 26 | |||
| Average | 29.67 | |||
| 31 | Brandon Weeden | Sean | 30 | Dave Says: Brandon Weeden reminds me of Drew Bledsoe, which is a blessing and a curse based on the latter’s career. Both QB’s were strong, accurate passers when they could stay in the pocket, and both struggle with accuracy when forced to scramble. Bledsoe was able to play well during the early part of his career, but his unathletic nature hindered him by 30. Weeden is 28. |
| Dave | 27 | |||
| Jeff | 31 | |||
| Kyle | 30 | |||
| Neal | 31 | |||
| Justin | 30 | |||
| Average | 29.83 | |||
| 32 | Blaine Gabbert | Sean | 31 | Jeff Says: His game will never be as good as his hair, but I refuse to place him as the worst starting quarterback in the league when he has only struggled as a rookie and there are some very unproven rookies with worse college track records coming into starting roles. Gabbert has shown some strides this preseason and I know that doesn’t mean much but if he doesn’t make at least a couple steps of progress this season and is still the starter next season he could find his way to the basement of my rankings. |
| Dave | 30 | |||
| Jeff | 28 | |||
| Kyle | 32 | |||
| Neal | 32 | |||
| Justin | 32 | |||
| Average | 30.83 |